The estimation of reliable indices of abundance for sedentary stocks
requires the incorporation of the underlying spatial population
structure, including issues arising from the sampling design and zero
inflation. We applied seven spatial interpolation techniques [ordinary
kriging (OK), kriging with external drift (KED), a negative binomial
generalized additive model (NBGAM), NBGAM plus OK (NBGAM+OK), a general
additive mixed model (GAMM), GAMM plus OK (GAMM+OK) and a zero-inflated
negative binomial model (ZINB) ] to three survey datasets to estimate
biomass for the gastropod Aliger gigas on the Pedro Bank Jamaica.
The models were evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation diagnostics
criteria for choosing the best model. We also compared the best model
estimations against two common design methods to assess the consequences
of ignoring the spatial structure of the species distribution. GAMM and
ZINB were overall the best models but were strongly affected by the
sampling design, sample size, the coefficient of variation of the sample
and the quality of the available covariates used to model the
distribution (geographic location, depth and habitat). More reliable
abundance indices can help to improve stock assessments and the
development of spatial management using an ecosystem approach. |