The southern population of Mugil liza is distributed from Argentina (47°S) to the state of São Paulo, Brazil (23°S). Young mullets use the estuaries as nursery grounds, and prior to recruitment into estuaries they use the surf zone as a temporary habitat. Based on 12 consecutive months of sampling, this study used generalized linear models (GLM) to analyse the relationships between environmental variables and the presence and relative abundance of young mullets in the surf zone adjacent to six major estuaries in southern Brazil (between 29°S and 33°S). Young mullets were present in all seasons over the sampling period, but the probability of occurrence was higher in winter and was associated with low temperatures. The water temperature alone explained more than half of the total deviance of the GLM models for presence (23%) and abundance (21%) of young mullets in the surf zone. Site 2 (Rio Grande) had lower temperatures in the colder months, the highest probability of occurrence of all collection sites and the greatest abundance (n=3402) of young M. liza, which represented 52% of the total of individuals (n=6493) caught among the six sites sampled.