We explore the sustainability of the small pelagics fishery in the northern Adriatic sea, northeastern Italy, by means of a bioeconomic simulation model. This model reproduces the biological and economic conditions in which the fisheries occur. Starting from an initial condition (2004), the simulation model incorporates the biological and economic processes of the resources and the fishing fleet and computes the most probable future trajectory of the system under different management conditions. We analysed the projection of selected indicators (biomass, recruitment, catches, profits) under four different management scenarios based on effort control, and we assessed the performance of these management measures against the current situation. The four scenarios were: i) increase in fuel price, ii) reduction in fuel price, iii) limiting the number of days at sea, and iv) extending the fishing period. Each management event was introduced in the third year of the simulation. For each scenario a stochastic simulation was carried out. Our results show that the impact of each management measure tested was not homogeneous across the fleet. In particular, comparatively smaller vessels generally display narrower profit margins and tend to be more sensitive to negative shocks, reinforcing the idea that management measures should be calibrated by stratifying the fleet before implementation. |