Análisis de series de tiempo aplicado a la pesca del sistema camarón-pargo en golfo Triste, Venezuela
Ricardo Molinet, Marco Tulio Badaracco, Juan José Salaya

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR THE SHRIMP AND SNAPPER FISHERIES IN GOLFO TRISTE, VENEZUELA. - Because of the multiple problems of fisheries evaluation associated with traditional methods based on the relationships between catch, catch per unit effort and fishing effort, we used time series analysis. ARIMA model parameters were estimated and proved for shrimp (Penaeus spp.) and the lane snapper (Lutjanus synagris), caught in Golfo Triste , Venezuela. We have used rnontly time series data from 1972 to 1986 for the shrimp and the 1976-1986 period for the snapper. The 1987 and 1988 landing data were used for the evaluation of the predictive power of the models. We found a 15 month cycle for the shrimp and a 18 month cycle for the snapper. Cross correlation analyses were made for the shrimp and the snapper landing data and also for their relative abundances. A predator-prey relationship between these species was found which had a 16 to 19 month time lag.

Keywords: Time series analysis, models, ARIMA, fisheries, predator-prey, seasonality, predictions, Golfo Triste.
Contents of this volume Sci. Mar. 55(2) : 427-437 Back PDF
Please, send comments to
ICM (CSIC) - Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37-49. E-08003 Barcelona (Spain)