Análisis y predicción de la pesquería demersal de las Islas Canarias mediante un modelo ARIMA
José G. Pajuelo, José M. Lorenzo
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF THE DEMERSAL FISHERY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS USING AN ARIMA MODEL.- The utility of the ARIMA models was tested for analysing and forecasting the catches of the demersal fish species exploited in the Canary Islands. A 13-years record (June 1980-April 1993) of the total catches by month of D. gibbosus, P. pagrus, S. cantharus, P. acarne and P. erythrinus from the southwestern Gran Canaria (Canary Islands) was analysed. The model obtained is capable of describing and forecasting up to 24 months ahead the landing of the demersal fishery (U-Theil <1). The catches show a decreasing trend and seasonality. The seasonality is due to the transference of the fishing effort from demersal fishery to the tuna fishery.
Keywords: Forecasting, demersal fishery, Canary Islands, time series, ARIMA models.
Sci. Mar. 59(2) : 155-164
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